The Marriage Calculator

Tim — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 04:14:42 +0000

Divorce360 has an interesting tool posted. It’s a “marriage calculator,” and it is supposed to compute the chance that you will get a divorce in the next five years. While they don’t state exactly how it works, it is obvious that it takes into account the following factors: Gender, the year you married, your level of education, your age at the time of marriage, and how many years you have been married.

I’m always cynical of calculators like this. They work through the use of statistics. People may make up statistics, but people are not statistics. There’s something about the working backwards from the statistic that just doesn’t work. It’s like the law of large numbers. A statistician or actuarial can tell you almost to the day when a theoretical member of a 100,000-strong group will die, but they can’t tell you the actual person’s chance of mortality.

What do you think of the calculator? Leave a comment and let me know.

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The Marriage Calculator